OT - Re: GPL Java

Bryan Sant bryan.sant at gmail.com
Thu Nov 9 14:17:22 MST 2006


On 11/8/06, Michael Torrie <torriem at chem.byu.edu> wrote:
> Sun is dying, no doubt about it.  It's not a matter of if Sun is going
> to die, but rather run.  The commoditization of cheap PC hardware sealed
> Sun's fate a long time ago.  Java is just something of a red herring or
> anomaly.  A piece of popular software that came out of a hardware
> company.  Sun's still, despite their AMD servers, a big iron unix

That's a big despite.  The AMD Opteron servers are Sun's new focus,
and frankly their AMD servers are better than the competition at
similar price points.  It's a cut throat market, but Sun is able to
compete as well as the next vendor.

> vendor.  They are screwed either way now. If they go with Linux or
> Microsoft for their OS, then they are just another clone maker.  If they

That's not sexy, but by doing just that they would stay in business.

> continue with Solaris (which is a good OS), they will probably last a
> bit longer but will still suffer as proprietary unix breaths its last
> sigh.  Interesting that Solaris 10 has as a feature Linux binary
> compatibility.

Solaris isn't a proprietary unix.  It is open source and runs on
commodity hardware.  You can use it today on your Dell, HP, or IBM
servers.  Before Solaris was open sourced it was the most popular
proprietary unix in the market.  I wouldn't be buying any Sun stock,
but they aren't going to fold.  At worst, they'll downsize.

> Now really I believe Sun will pull through, but it won't your
> grandfather's sun that comes out the other end.

This is basically my point.  They'll change, shrink, become less
relevant than they are today, but they'll be around forever.  Remember
when IBM was supposed to be finished?

> Don't underestimate Microsoft's clout with .NET either.  Java is now
> competing with them, despite you're assurance that it is the other way
> around.

It's not /my/ assurance that Java is dominant, it's a market reality.
Java has more deployments, more users, more jobs, more free software,
more partners, and it dominates the software development industry.

Java is the most popular language in the world:
http://www.tiobe.com/tpci.htm

It is the most used language on sourceforge:
http://www.cs.berkeley.edu/~flab/languages.html  (notice the trend)

It is the most desired language skill:
Dice.com:  15,951 Java jobs
(only 6,110 C# jobs)

Java's Swing is the most used GUI toolkit in North America:
http://weblogs.java.net/blog/hansmuller/archive/2005/10/official_swing.html

"Java Swing with 47% use, has surpassed WinForms as the dominant GUI
development toolkit, an increase of 27% since fall 2004."

Java's dominance isn't my opinion, it just is.

-Bryan



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